01 September 2020

Biden? My Gut Says No!

One problem I have right now in clearing my mind of idiotic distractions is that I have an internal conflict going on. My gut is at war with my head. My gut tells me that there is no possible way that Joe Biden can beat Donald Trump in the upcoming contest. I mean the guy is bringing machine guns and grenade launchers to a falling-piano fight with a cartoon character, and he’s bound to be crushed. But on the other hand the polls tell me that Biden is well ahead of Trump in the key swing states and that there’s no path to victory for the president. I see no post-convention bounce so far; the bars are refusing to budge.

But what about that enthusiasm gap that Michael Moore has been going on about? I do find it unusual that Democrats (or at least anti-conservatives) are worrying about it; usually it’s the people on the downside of the curve who talk up that up: “Albeit they possess the might, Nonetheless we have the will” (as Tom Lehrer put it in his Harvard fight song). The thing is, as far as I can tell the Trumpites’ enthusiasm for Trump is matched if not surpassed by ordinary Americans’ loathing for him, so that would appear to be a wash.

Maybe it’s my personal prejudices that are informing my gut here. I’ve despised Biden for decades, a lot longer than I’d even heard of Trump, let alone formed any opinion about him. On the other hand my gut doesn’t seem to be alone in this boat; the betting odds on the Biden-Trump race have narrowed recently, with Trump catching up to Biden. Somebody should drag Johnny the Snitch out of retirement and ask him what the word on the street is. He usually seems to know what’s up.

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